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November 27, 2008

Russian Analyst - U.S. Breaks Up & We Claim Alaska

                     (Image from paradoxoff.com)

A leading Russian political analyst has said the economic turmoil in the United States has confirmed his long-held view that the country is heading for collapse, and will divide into separate parts.

Professor Igor Panarin said in an interview with the respected daily IZVESTIA published on Monday: "The dollar is not secured by anything. The country's foreign debt has grown like an avalanche, even though in the early 1980s there was no debt. By 1998, when I first made my prediction, it had exceeded $2 trillion. Now it is more than 11 trillion. This is a pyramid that can only collapse."

The paper said Panarin's dire predictions for the U.S. economy, initially made at an international conference in Australia 10 years ago at a time when the economy appeared strong, have been given more credence by this year's events.

When asked when the U.S. economy would collapse, Panarin said: "It is already collapsing. Due to the financial crisis, three of the largest and oldest five banks on Wall Street have already ceased to exist, and two are barely surviving. Their losses are the biggest in history. Now what we will see is a change in the regulatory system on a global financial scale: America will no longer be the world's financial regulator."

When asked who would replace the U.S. in regulating world markets, he said: "Two countries could assume this role: China, with its vast reserves, and Russia, which could play the role of a regulator in Eurasia."

Asked why he expected the U.S. to break up into separate parts, he said: "A whole range of reasons. Firstly, the financial problems in the U.S. will get worse. Millions of citizens there have lost their savings. Prices and unemployment are on the rise. General Motors and Ford are on the verge of collapse, and this means that whole cities will be left without work. Governors are already insistently demanding money from the federal center. Dissatisfaction is growing, and at the moment it is only being held back by the elections and the hope that Obama can work miracles. But by spring, it will be clear that there are no miracles."

He also cited the "vulnerable political setup", "lack of unified national laws", and "divisions among the elite, which have become clear in these crisis conditions."

He predicted that the U.S. will break up into six parts - the Pacific coast, with its growing Chinese population; the South, with its Hispanics; Texas, where independence movements are on the rise; the Atlantic coast, with its distinct and separate mentality; five of the poorer central states with their large Native American populations; and the northern states, where the influence from Canada is strong.

He even suggested that "we could claim Alaska - it was only granted on lease, after all." Panarin, 60, is a professor at the Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and has authored several books on information warfare.

At http://www.drudgereport.com/flashrur.htm

November 25, 2008

Quick Explanation of Meltdown

                         (Image from i.dailymail.co.uk)

Shocked by an ill-understood financial crisis, panicky American voters are poised to elect a staunch leftist on Tuesday to serve as their 44th president *

Congress required that mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac direct 52% of their backing to the homes of low-income, higher-risk, mortgagees. It did the same, though not to the same extent, with the commercial banking system. Alan Greenspan co-operated with Congress by holding the prime rate at 1% for almost a year, facilitating the issuance of trillions of dollars of low-yield, high-risk mortgages. 

The financial industry bundled these together in consolidated debt obligations (CDOs), whereby investors could buy in at different rates and risk levels. The CDOs were in turn backed by default swaps, insurance policies that gave the securities a (false as it turned out) semblance of reliability. Meanwhile, investment banks were permitted to borrow up to 30 times their asset bases, three times the leverage permitted to lending banks. It was a house of cards on an open terrace on a summer day.

Early signs of a slight business downturn shook loose some of the most vulnerable mortgages, and the effects rolled through to the insurance companies. Banks marked down their asset values, and to avoid being afoul of Federal Reserve-imposed ratios (which are based on market prices), had to seek more capital at declining issue prices, diluting existing shareholders. Market shapers and astute analysts short-sold the CDOs and bank shares, (i.e., sold them without first buying them, forcing down the market price, and then covering their sales by buying at a lower price).

The process broadened and accelerated, as this kind of crash always does. Secretary of the Treasury Henry Paulson and the Federal Reserve chairman, Ben Bernanke, scrambled around like one-armed paper-hangers, saving some companies (Bear Stearns) and not others (Lehman).

Very late, they improvised an impractical plan for buying up to $700-billion of the defaulted real estate-related debt, but the CDOs are not easily divided and the federal government had no capability for negotiating such transactions. And so it was agreed that the government would, as it did in the 1930’s, buy preferred shares in the encumbered institutions at discounted prices, and let the banks work it out with their clients and debtors.

The foregoing analysis makes no pretense to economic sophistication, but I saw no evidence that either candidate is capable of giving even this minimalist description of what has panicked the country, discomfited the whole financial world and caused foreigners to resume the habit that began with the U.S. rejection of the Treaty of Versailles, and blame everything bad on America. The collapse of the United States was jubilantly announced by the international left, probably at least two centuries prematurely.

______________

* Written just before the November 4 Presidential election, at tp://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/fullcomment/archive/2008/11/01/conrad-black-ignorance-and-upheaval.aspx. by  Conrad Black in Canada's National Post, November 1, 2008. 

November 24, 2008

Panic of '08 - Fed Pledges Top $7.4 Trillion

                                   (Image from necn.com)

Biggest risk comes from rescuing companies perceived as "too big to fail" says official.

(From "Bloomberg Report," 11-24-08, by Mark Pittman and Bob Ivry.) *

The U.S. government is prepared to lend more than $7.4 trillion on behalf of American taxpayers, or half the value of everything produced in the nation last year, to rescue the financial system since the credit markets seized up 15 months ago.

The unprecedented pledge of funds includes $2.8 trillion already tapped by financial institutions in the biggest response to an economic emergency since the New Deal of the 1930s, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The commitment dwarfs the only plan approved by lawmakers, the Treasury Department’s $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program. Federal Reserve lending last week was 1,900 times the weekly average for the three years before the crisis.

When Congress approved the TARP on Oct. 3, Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson acknowledged the need for transparency and oversight. Now, as regulators commit far more money while refusing to disclose loan recipients or reveal the collateral they are taking in return, some Congress members are calling for the Fed to be reined in.

“Whether it’s lending or spending, it’s tax dollars that are going out the window and we end up holding collateral we don’t know anything about,” said Congressman Scott Garrett, a New Jersey Republican who serves on the House Financial Services Committee. “The time has come that we consider what sort of limitations we should be placing on the Fed so that authority returns to elected officials as opposed to appointed ones.”

Too Big to Fail

The bailout includes a Fed program to buy as much as $2.4 trillion in short-term notes, called commercial paper, that companies use to pay bills, begun Oct. 27, and $1.4 trillion from the FDIC to guarantee bank-to-bank loans, started Oct. 14.

William Poole, former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, said the two programs are unlikely to lose money. The bigger risk comes from rescuing companies perceived as “too big to fail,” he said.  (Emphasis added)

Snip (...)

The government committed $29 billion to help engineer the takeover in March of Bear Stearns Cos. by New York-based JPMorgan Chase & Co.and $122.8 billion in addition to TARP allocations to bail out New York-based American International Group Inc., once the world’s largest insurer. Yesterday, Citigroup Inc. received $306 billion of government guarantees for troubled mortgages and toxic assets. The Treasury Department also will inject $20 billion into the bank after its stock fell 60 percent last week.

“No question there is some credit risk there,” Poole said.

Exposure

Congressman Darrell Issa, a California Republican on the Financial Services Committee, said risk is lurking in the programs that Poole thinks are safe.

“The thing that people don’t understand is it’s not how likely that the exposure becomes a reality, but what if it does?” Issa said. “There’s no transparency to it so who’s to say they’re right?”

________________

* Read the whole article at http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=arEE1iClqDrk&refer=home ,

November 18, 2008

Senator - "Freeze Bailout!"

                     (Image from gristmill.grist.org)

Senator James Inhofe criticises Bail-Out bill, asks Senate to freeze it.* 

U.S. Sen. Jim Inhofe said Saturday that Congress was not told the truth about the bailout of the nation's financial system and should take back what is left of the $700 billion "blank check'' it gave the Bush administration.

"It is just outrageous that the American people don't know that Congress doesn't know how much money he (Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson) has given away to anyone.'' 

"It could be to his friends. It could be to anybody else. We don't know. There is no way of knowing.''

Imhofe's blunt coments came on the heels of Paulson's shift in how he thinks the bailout funds should be spent.  Paulson announced last week... he was abandoning his plan to free up the nation's credit system by buying up toxic assets from troubled financial institutions. Instead, Paulson wants to take a more direct action on the consumer credit front.

"He was able to get this authority from Congress predicated on what he was going to do, and then he didn't do it,'' Inhofe said.

Inhofe challenged Paulson's plan earlier because there were no answers for many questions.  He also questioned the rush to get the bailout passed.

"When they come up and say this has to be done and has to be done immediately, there is no other way of doing it, you have to sit back and take a deep breath and nine times out of 10 they are not telling the truth,'' he said.

"And this is one of those nine times.''  In the interview, the senator said his plans can provide "redemption'' for those senators who supported Paulson. 

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid...wants to use the upcoming lame duck session to push economic issues such as...aid to the nation's ailing auto industry.

Inhofe opposes that. "You don't stimulate the economy by giving away more money,'' he said..."reality must be accepted.  If we keep on nursing a broken system, then we can't expect to have a different result come later on."

"I just think we have to draw the line someplace, and the time is here.''

____________

* Read the rest in the Tulsa World,  at http://www.tulsaworld.com/news/article.aspx?articleID=20081116_16_A1_hHecri880405 , 11-16-08, by Jim Meyers.

November 17, 2008

World Has Never Seen Such "Freezing Heat"

                            (Image from z.hubpages.com)

ByChristopher Booker, November 16, 2008, in the UK Telegraph.*

A surreal scientific blunder last week raised a huge question mark about the temperature records that underpin the worldwide alarm over global warming. On Monday, Nasa's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), which is run by Al Gore's chief scientific ally, Dr James Hansen, and is one of four bodies responsible for monitoring global temperatures, announced that last month was the hottest October on record.

This was startling. Across the world there were reports of unseasonal snow and plummeting temperatures last month, from the American Great Plains to China, and from the Alps to New Zealand. China's official news agency reported that Tibet had suffered its "worst snowstorm ever". In the US, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration registered 63 local snowfall records and 115 lowest-ever temperatures for the month, and ranked it as only the 70th-warmest October in 114 years.

So what explained the anomaly? GISS's computerised temperature maps seemed to show readings across a large part of Russia had been up to 10 degrees higher than normal. But when expert readers of the two leading warming-sceptic blogs, Watts Up With That and Climate Audit, began detailed analysis of the GISS data they made an astonishing discovery. The reason for the freak figures was that scores of temperature records from Russia and elsewhere were not based on October readings at all. Figures from the previous month had simply been carried over and repeated two months running.

The error was so glaring that when it was reported on the two blogs - run by the US meteorologist Anthony Watts and Steve McIntyre, the Canadian computer analyst who won fame for his expert debunking of the notorious "hockey stick" graph - GISS began hastily revising its figures. This only made the confusion worse because, to compensate for the lowered temperatures in Russia, GISS claimed to have discovered a new "hotspot" in the Arctic - in a month when satellite images were showing Arctic sea-ice recovering so fast from its summer melt that three weeks ago it was 30 per cent more extensive than at the same time last year.

A GISS spokesman lamely explained that the reason for the error in the Russian figures was that they were obtained from another body, and that GISS did not have resources to exercise proper quality control over the data it was supplied with. This is an astonishing admission: the figures published by Dr Hansen's institute are not only one of the four data sets that the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) relies on to promote its case for global warming, but they are the most widely quoted, since they consistently show higher temperatures than the others.

If there is one scientist more responsible than any other for the alarm over global warming it is Dr Hansen, who set the whole scare in train back in 1988 with his testimony to a US Senate committee chaired by Al Gore. Again and again, Dr Hansen has been to the fore in making extreme claims over the dangers of climate change. (He was recently in the news here for supporting the Greenpeace activists acquitted of criminally damaging a coal-fired power station in Kent, on the grounds that the harm done to the planet by a new power station would far outweigh any damage they had done themselves.)

Yet last week's latest episode is far from the first time Dr Hansen's methodology has been called in question. In 2007 he was forced by Mr Watts and Mr McIntyre to revise his published figures for US surface temperatures, to show that the hottest decade of the 20th century was not the 1990s, as he had claimed, but the 1930s.

Another of his close allies is Dr Rajendra Pachauri, chairman of the IPCC, who recently startled a university audience in Australia by claiming that global temperatures have recently been rising "very much faster" than ever, in front of a graph showing them rising sharply in the past decade. In fact, as many of his audience were aware, they have not been rising in recent years and since 2007 have dropped.

Dr Pachauri, a former railway engineer with no qualifications in climate science, may believe what Dr Hansen tells him. But whether, on the basis of such evidence, it is wise for the world's governments to embark on some of the most costly economic measures ever proposed, to remedy a problem which may actually not exist, is a question which should give us all pause for thought.

__________

*At http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2008/11/16/do1610.xml  

November 14, 2008

Europe Is Next

       German Leader Merkel and French Leader Sarkozy in Paris                        

                  (Image from nancarrow-webdesk.com)

Europe and all the world has followed the U.S. into a deep financial crisis.  But that is not to be all.  Now Stratfor* warns that Europe has its own housing bubble, which is about to burst.  It also is based on a mountain-sized pile of bad housing debt, somewhat like in the U.S.

With Europe's constant criticism of the U.S. and it's disdain for it, it is hard to believe how much they follow and imitate us.  How did it happen?

Here is the chain of events:  In the U.S. President Carter enacted the CRA, forcing banks to give mortages to bad loan risks.  That was in the 70s.  ACORN pushed many banks into doing it more, then pushed Congress to force Fannie/Freddie to accept these bad loans, up to 52%.of its total mortgages.  Janet Reno, Clinton's Attorney General, enforced that.  So the housing market was flooded with cheap money.  A huge, prosperous bubble resulted.  Housing and construction boomed.  But then the bill came due and the bubble burst.

Meanwhile, Europe wanted some of the same bubble.  So they also made very questionable loans to bad credit risks.  Their financial bubble burst when ours did.  But their housing bubble has not really burst yet, although it is beginning.  Stratfor wrote:

The global loiquidity crisis has had its most detrimental effects thus far in Europe, destabilizing the banking system and unearthing weak economic fundamentals across the continent.  This is particularly trus for Emerging Europe, Central Europe and the Balkans.  Beneath the impact of the credit crunch looms a potential housing crisis that has, for the moment, been overshadowed by the still-unfolding banking crisis but has the potential to unleash forces just as disastrous and even more long term. 

Now EU leaders are lining up to get various kinds of help from the U.S. - and to urge EU type restraints on the U.S. capitalist system, which has made it so much more prosperous and strong than Europe.

Bush is talking sense to them.  Everyone is watching to see what Obama will do.

Whatever anyone does, it's going to be a world-wide recession, until all the bad debt is out of the economes.   But if we are lucky, it could be shorter than it looks from here.

________

*Stratfor is the "civilian CIA," the premiun intelligence and forecasting outfit, whose analyses are read by most world and corporate leaders.

November 11, 2008

Jealousy, Taxes and the Stock Market

          (Image from collegerecruiter.com)

What is "fairness" where taxes are concerned?  Equal tax rates for all?  Or a "progressive" tax rate, where the rich are taxed at a higher rate than the poor?  Americans have come to accept that progressive tax rates are "fairer."  But - how much more do the rich need to be taxed for "fairness?"  That may have become "how much more do the rich need to be punished for being rich?"  For many, "fairness" has come down to punishing the more successful.  To simple childish jealousy, in fact.  How is that?

Americans have always been ambivalent about their rich.  On one hand, they hate them.  On the other hand, they love them and imitate them.  On one hand, they need them to create jobs.  On the other hand, they want to take away the "unfair" wealth that makes large-scale jobs-creating investment possible.

It's all about "fairness" for many.  But what does "fairness" mean?  When we are children, it means always getting what everyone else has.  That is, we want equality of outcomes.  But even as children, we eventually learn that life is not "fair."  Yet we also learn that there are compensations.  We may do worse than others in some ways, but better in others.  We see that we are all different.  So most accept that while "fair" (equal) outcomes may not be possible,  that so long as our opportunities are more or less equal, we still have a "fair" shot at a good life.  For most, when we become an adult, that is good enough.  We see that in fact, that is far better than in any other country.

Still, when it comes time to vote, we somehow can be led around by those who want us to punish the rich.  All we have learned about "fairness" of outcomes vs. "fairness" of opportunities goes right out the window.  Our long-ago childish jealousy and resentment kicks in, overpowering all our hard-learned lessons to the contrary.

But is there actually any economic reason not to keep raising the tax rates for the rich?  There is.  Simply, the more we raise the tax rates for the rich, the less total taxes they pay.  And the more we lower the tax rates for the rich, the more total taxes they pay.  Paradoxical, isn't it?  If we want the rich to pay more of the total tax bill, we must lower their tax rates.  And that is in order to make taxes "fairer!"

How does this work out in practice?  Well, we hate the very idea.  Politicians especially hate it.  Most especially of all, the Democrat Party hates it.  They won't even acknowledge it.  They have gone so far as to prohibit the CBO (Congressional Budget Office) from acknowledging it.*

What does all this have to do with the continuing free-fall of the stock market?  Just this.  Some observers point out that the post-election fall in stock prices is due to Obama's promise to raise capital gains taxes.  That would fall on any profits from the sale of stocks.  If stock investors sell now, they pay current tax rates.  If they wait, they will pay Obama's increased tax rates.  So they are selling now, in this tax year.

Some predicted accurately that this would happen.  One was Dick Morris, Clinton's genius political advisor and current political commentator.  He warned Obama to renounce his proposed capital-gains tax increase to stop the market from falling more.  But traditional Democrat attitudes toward "fairness" got in the way, as they have before.  Dick Morris and Eileen McGann wrote yesterday: 

Dick recalls vividly his meeting with Bob Rubin when he was Treasury Secretary under Clinton. Rubin opposed any cut in the capital gains tax even though he admitted that a cut in the tax would not cut, but might even augment, government revenues. Obama, himself, defended an increase as a matter of social fairness in the campaign debates when he was asked whether he favored increasing the tax even though history showed that a higher tax did not generate increased revenues.**

"Fairness?"  How are higher tax rates on the rich more "fair" if they bring lower tax revenues, harming all of us?  It hurts the punishers more than the punished.  The rich will remain rich, even with higher taxes.  But there will be fewer jobs, and less prosperity, for the non-rich..***  And the stock market could continue its free-fall, punishing everyone with a pension plan.  What's fair about that?  Isn't it actually more a case of jealousy and resentment rather than fairness?

It would be better to try using some adult common sense.

_____________________

*The CBO, due to Democrat insistance, has not been allowed to reflect this in "Pay-Go" - the idea that new spending must be covered by new, higher taxes.  Since lower taxes for the rich will bring in more tax revenue, that needs to be considered in such calculations.  That would be a "dynamic" estimate.  But the Democrats force a "static" estimate instead, based on the false idea that only higher taxes on the rich will bring in more tax revenue.

**From "Obama Must Forsake Cap Gains Hike To Stabilize Markets", Dick Morris and Eileen McGann, 11-10-08, at http://www.dickmorris.com/blog/2008/11/10/obama-must-forsake-cap-gains-tax-hike-to-stabilize-markets/#more-486.

*** How do tax cuts make the rich pay more taxes?  Basically, because the rich include more of the people most gifted at making money.  Tax cuts might make some of them work harder, true.  But mostly, tax cuts open up new money-making opportunities "at the margin."  Suddenly, some deals and investments that were not profitable before become promising.  So new deals and investments increase, more profits result, more businesses are opened or expanded, more old jobs can pay more, and more new jobs are opened up.  The result?  Everyone in the whole economy benefits.  The rich get enough richer that, although they are now taxed at lower rates, they pay taxes on so much more income that their total tax bill actually goes up.

October 27, 2008

Dems Will Turn Meltdown Into Catastrophe

                          (Image from meidner.com)

With scant elegance, nuance or tact, this "bird's-eye view" is a rough picture of what will happen if we go over this particular cliff at this, "our moment" in history, and why we may never regain what will be lost if we do.

The problem is not only with the presidency.  Increasingly, Congress is the problem.  Congress has much more power than the President now.  If the Democrat majority grows, it will have still more power over the new President, whether Obama or McCain.  What will that mean for the future, and especially for this meltdown?

Remember how this meltdown started.  It was from the Democrat party, and from their mis-handled compassionate desire to help minorities and poor people own their own homes.  The motive was laudable.  The result was ruinous.  We need to assess blame in order to know what not to do, and who not to put in charge next time.

To recap:  President Carter started the CRA, which pushed banks to make sub-prime mortgages to people who could not afford them.  ACORN pushed banks into making sub-prime mortgages that they were forbidden to make, by law and by prudent practice.  ACORN pushed Congress into forcing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac into accepting more of such mortgages than they wanted.  Then Congress forced Fannie/Freddie to make 50% of all its mortgages be sub-prime mortgages.  Then President Clinton's Justice Department under Janet Reno actively threatened any banks who did not comply.  (Clinton has recently acknowledged his mistake.)* 

Madness!  The house of cards started its free-fall when the price of housing started down, and the "housing bubble" burst.  But that house of cards was built, first to last, by the Democrats.  To understand our future, that fact must be remembered at every turn.  Because we must move from Left to Right to have any semblance of a good future.

Why?  Because this meltdown will take years to work out, even if we do everything right.  (Much worse, if we do not do everything right.)  That is because this meltdown is a "perfect storm."  More than one crisis is going on, and more will come.  They will be worse than this one, because this one, at least, has some underlying equity behind the bad debt in the form of property.  The oncoming crises do not.  And these crises will all feed on each other.

The housing crisis will be followed quickly by the Social Security crisis and the Medicare crisis.  It Democrats are elected this time, there will also be the nationalized health care crisis.

Why will they be crises?  Because they are all Ponzi Schemes.  None of them are sustainable.  Each one is a bubble, waiting to burst.  Each one is built on debt.  Sooner or later, debts have to be paid.  If not, there is default on the debts.  Then the bubble bursts.  Then there is a meltdown, like this one - or worse.

Each of these future meltdowns will rapidly become international, world-wide.  Why?  Because the U.S. has become the lynchpin, the cornerstone, that keeps the world economy functioning.  Why?  It is the major market in the world.  Everyone wants to sell to the U.S.  It is also the major "safe haven" for investment money.  Why?  Because money is less likely to be stolen or lost here than anywhere else.  And because it is the U.S. military  - supported by U.S. prosperity - that is the primary guarantor of however much safety and stability there is in the world.

Another more long-term, underlying trend must be factored in.  It is demography (population studies.)  All countries have had declining birth rates for several decades now.  At the same time, life-expectancy and life-spans have also been increasing in all countries.  This has caused a "gray overhang."  That is, the older population percentage has been growing while the younger population percentage has been shrinking.  This means there are fewer and fewer young workers to support more and more older non-workers.  This will ruin retirement schemes all over the world.  Not to mention universal health-plans, which are heavily impacted by the old.  This trend also invisibly underlies many other economic/political problems and will help drive them into crises.  Now that the retirement of the huge Boomer generation has arrived, these crises will not delay long.

But what of the prosperity we have had since WWII?  It cannot last, without drastic changes - toward the Right.  Our prosperity has mostly been based on debt - the promise to pay in the future what we borrow and spend today.  Such promises eventually must be paid, or see the whole system collapse.  The Asian countries save money.  The West saves little.  The U.S., nationally, does not save at all.  Everything, all our prosperity, is based on debt.  (For instance, our Social Security has no "lockbox".  There are no funds, no actual savings there.  Congress spends every dime, in "off-budget" spending.  This "Ponzi  Scheme" has assumed that taxes from younger workers would always pay retirement for the older non-workers.  Our declining birth rates and growing survival rates have destroyed that possibility.)

All over the world, savings from retirement plans have been invested  in the U.S. for security and safe returns.  So when we crash, they crash too.  And we will crash, because we are built on debt.

What can we do?  First, when we are in a hole, we have to stop digging.  So for a long time, we have to stop electing Democrats.  Why?

Democrats want to help people.  At least, some of the people. And they want to do it on a new, much larger scale  To do that, they want to use force.  That is, they want to force part of the population to support the other part.  With what force?  Government.  Government is defined primarily as the ultimate coercive power - the highest power that can force people to do things.  And Democrate, bless them, want to help people in the only way they know - through government.

To spend what they must in order to do what they plan, they must build government debt to great new levels.  Why?  Because there is no way they can spend that much out of current U.S. income.

What can we do?  Don't let them spend what they plan.  How can we stop them?  Don't elect them.  Don't vote for them.

Whatever other preferences we may have doesn't change the equation.  We cannot afford the Democrat way.  We cannot survive this, and the other coming crises, by making it worse.

I'm truly sorry.  And I do realize and acknowledge that the Republicans have many, many problems of their own.  But voting Democrat, at this time and probably for a long time, is to say "Bring it on!" to catastrophe.  I'm sorry.  But I can't argue with facts anymore than you can.**

__________________

* Congress is pushing mightily to shift blame from itself to Wall Street fat cats - who are not without fault here.  But the truth is that it was Democrats in office who pushed Wall Street (through the banks who were forced into making bad mortgages) into accepting toxic debt.  This meltdown belongs to Democrats in office.

**Helping the poor and disadvantaged must not be abandoned.  But we must find ways to help them apart from government.  Fortunately, there are many other ways, with good, less-ruinous track records.

October 18, 2008

Hockey Moms And Capital Markets

              (Image from extrememortman.com)

By Spengler on 10-7-08 in Asian Times at http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/JJ07Dj07.html.

Why do Asian investors depend on American capital markets? Given the near breakdown of key sectors of the American market, one might expect Asians to bring their money home. Quite the opposite has happened:..Asian capital markets cannot absorb Asia's savings.

What does America have that Asia doesn't have? The answer is, Sarah Palin - not Sarah Palin the vice presidential candidate, but Sarah Palin the "hockey mom" turned small-town mayor and reforming Alaska governor. All the PhDs and MBAs in the world can't make a capital market work, but ordinary people like Sarah Palin can. Laws depend on the will of the people to enforce them. It is the initiative of ordinary people that makes America's political system the world's most reliable.

America is the heir to a long tradition of Anglo-Saxon law that began with jury trial and the Magna Carta and continued through the English Revolution of the 17th century and the American Revolution of the 18th. Ordinary people like Palin are the bearers of this tradition.

Outside of the United States, the young governor of Alaska has become a figure of ridicule - someone who did not own a passport until last year and who quaintly believes that her state's proximity to Russia gives her insights on foreign policy. How, my European friends ask, was it possible for such an an ignorant bumpkin to become a candidate for America's second-highest office? They don't understand America.

Provincial America depends on the initiative of ordinary people to get through the day. America has something like an Education Ministry, but it has little money to dispense. Americans pay for most of their school costs out of local taxes, and levy those taxes on themselves. In small towns, many public agencies, including fire protection and emergency medical assistance, depend almost entirely on volunteers. People who tax themselves, and give their own time and money for services on which communities depend, are not easily cowed by the federal government or by large corporations.

Palin's career may look like a poor imitation of a Preston Sturges script, but films such as Hail the Conquering Hero (1944) struck a chord with Americans precisely because the character type of the ordinary man or woman who takes on entrenched interests is instantly recognizable in America.

Palin really did take on the American oil companies and turn the scoundrels out of office. Her predecessor, Frank Murkowski, appointed her to the state oil and gas commission in the apparent belief that a small-town mayor and former beauty queen would rubber-stamp corrupt deals between the state and the Big Oil companies.

Shades of Jimmy Stewart in Mr Smith Goes to Washington, Palin ran against Murkowski and took his job. That does not qualify her to be president, to be sure, but it does show cunning and strength of character. Palin is qualified for high office by temperament if not by education, and is preferable to candidates whose education has made no improvement on their characters.

The fact that ordinary people safeguard their rights and have the means to challenge established interests does not exclude the possibility of fraud on a grand scale.

Asian investors were cheated by a conspiracy of the financial industry and the ratings agencies, which sold them ostensibly low-risk securities that turned out to be toxic. The just-approved US$700 billion support package for American banks sets America back to a regime of oligarchy, according to New York Times columnist David Brooks. Despite this fraud and its attendant humiliation, and despite the deterioration of governance in American markets, Asian investors are putting more rather than less money into America, judging from the decline of Asian currencies against the dollar in the course of the crisis.

One doesn't see demonstrations by wronged peasants in the small towns of America. There never were peasants - American farmers always were entrepreneurs - and the locals avenge injury by taking over their local governments, which have sufficient authority to make a difference. At the capillary level, school boards, the Parent Teachers' Association, self-administered religious organizations and volunteer organizations incubate a political class entirely different from anything to be found in Asia. There are tens of thousands of Sarah Palins lurking in the minor leagues of American politics, and they are the guarantors of market probity.

"Hockey Moms," to be sure, may not be the optimal promoters of America's future. One for one, the "Piano Moms" of China are cleverer people and produce smarter offspring. China's 30 million students of classical piano are one of the two great popular movements in the world today: the other is the House Church movement in Chinese Christianity. Children who play hockey will grow up to get coffee for children who study piano. As a pool of talent, nothing compares with the educated segment of the East Asian population that has embraced and mastered Western culture. Nonetheless, Asia still can't invest its own money at home, and seems farther than ever from that objective.

It is true that Asian economies depend on American consumers and an American recession is bad for Asian currencies. But why don't Asians consume what they produce at home? The trouble is that rich Asians don't lend to poor Asians in their own countries. Capital markets don't work in the developing world because it is too easy to steal money. Subprime mortgages in the US have suffered from poor documentation. What kind of documentation does one encounter in countries where everyone from the clerk at the records office to the secretary who hands you a form requires a small bribe? America is litigious to a fault, but its courts are fair and hard to corrupt.

Asians are reluctant to lend money to each other under the circumstances; they would rather lend money in places where a hockey mom can get involved in local politics and, on encountering graft and corruption, run a successful campaign to turn the scoundrels out. You do not need PhDs and MBAs for that. You need ordinary people who care sufficiently about the places in which they live to take control of their own towns and states when required. And, yes, it doesn't hurt if they own guns. Popular gun ownership places a limit on the abuse of state power. 

...That is why Asia's retirement money must look for a home overseas...The trouble (is that)...the derivative securities created out of the inedible scraps of the mortgage market - were subject to monstrously large demand from a world of aging savers (see The monster and the sausages, Asia Times Online, May 20, 2008). (All emphases added.)

September 30, 2008

Who Worked To Avoid This Meltdown?

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                                        (Image from koreatimes.co.kr)

This news broadcast video simply shows who worked to avoid the meltdown, how and when.  At http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cMnSp4qEXNM.  4 minutes.  Short, simple, factual.

(Hat Tip to Robert Martin)

September 29, 2008

Jack Welch On What Is To Come

http://www.nelsonconsulting.co.uk/Articles/jack

          (Image from nelsonconsulting.co.uk)

Here's what fabled Jack Welch, former CEO of GE, has to say on CBN about the aborted Bail-Out bill today, and what he thinks is about to happen to the economy.  At  Video: Welch on GE, Wall Street bailout.  Helpful.  Excellent..

(Heck. I can't make the link work.  Try going to http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26946382/page/2/, then click on " Video: Welch on GE, Wall Street bailout at the bottom of the (2nd) page.  The type is in red.)

ACORN's Role In Meltdown

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ACORN's Madeline Talbott

(Image from investorsgroup.com)

This from NY Post: "O's Dangerous Pals," by Stanley Kurtz, 9-29-08, at http://www.nypost.com/php/pfriendly/print.php?url=http://www.nypost.com/seven/09292008/postopinion/opedcolumnists/os_dangerous_pals_131216.htm

WHAT exactly does a "community organizer" do? Barack Obama's rise has left many Americans asking themselves that question. Here's a big part of the answer: Community organizers intimidate banks into making high-risk loans to customers with poor credit.

In the name of fairness to minorities, community organizers occupy private offices, chant inside bank lobbies, and confront executives at their homes - and thereby force financial institutions to direct hundreds of millions of dollars in mortgages to low-credit customers.

In other words, community organizers help to undermine the US economy by pushing the banking system into a sinkhole of bad loans. And Obama has spent years training and funding the organizers who do it.

THE seeds of today's financial meltdown lie in the Commu nity Reinvestment Act - a law passed in 1977 and made riskier by unwise amendments and regulatory rulings in later decades.

CRA was meant to encourage banks to make loans to high-risk borrowers, often minorities living in unstable neighborhoods. That has provided an opening to radical groups like ACORN (the Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now) to abuse the law by forcing banks to make hundreds of millions of dollars in "subprime" loans to often uncreditworthy poor and minority customers.

Any bank that wants to expand or merge with another has to show it has complied with CRA - and approval can be held up by complaints filed by groups like ACORN.

In fact, intimidation tactics, public charges of racism and threats to use CRA to block business expansion have enabled ACORN to extract hundreds of millions of dollars in loans and contributions from America's financial institutions.

Banks already overexposed by these shaky loans were pushed still further in the wrong direction when government-sponsored Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac began buying up their bad loans and offering them for sale on world markets.

Fannie and Freddie acted in response to Clinton administration pressure to boost homeownership rates among minorities and the poor. However compassionate the motive, the result of this systematic disregard for normal credit standards has been financial disaster.

ONE key pioneer of ACORN's subprime-loan shakedown racket was Madeline Talbott - an activist with extensive ties to Barack Obama. She was also in on the ground floor of the disastrous turn in Fannie Mae's mortgage policies.

Long the director of Chicago ACORN, Talbott is a specialist in "direct action" - organizers' term for their militant tactics of intimidation and disruption. Perhaps her most famous stunt was leading a group of ACORN protesters breaking into a meeting of the Chicago City Council to push for a "living wage" law, shouting in defiance as she was arrested for mob action and disorderly conduct. But her real legacy may be her drive to push banks into making risky mortgage loans.

In February 1990, Illinois regulators held what was believed to be the first-ever state hearing to consider blocking a thrift merger for lack of compliance with CRA. The challenge was filed by ACORN, led by Talbott. Officials of Bell Federal Savings and Loan Association, her target, complained that ACORN pressure was undermining its ability to meet strict financial requirements it was obligated to uphold and protested being boxed into an "affirmative-action lending policy." The following years saw Talbott featured in dozens of news stories about pressuring banks into higher-risk minority loans.

IN April 1992, Talbott filed an other precedent-setting com plaint using the "community support requirements" of the 1989 savings-and-loan bailout, this time against Avondale Federal Bank for Savings. Within a month, Chicago ACORN had organized its first "bank fair" at Malcolm X College and found 16 Chicago-area financial institutions willing to participate.

Two months later, aided by ACORN organizer Sandra Maxwell, Talbott announced plans to conduct demonstrations in the lobbies of area banks that refused to attend an ACORN-sponsored national bank "summit" in New York. She insisted that banks show a commitment to minority lending by lowering their standards on downpayments and underwriting - for example, by overlooking bad credit histories.

By September 1992, The Chicago Tribune was describing Talbott's program as "affirma- tive-action lending" and ACORN was issuing fact sheets bragging about relaxations of credit standards that it had won on behalf of minorities.

And Talbott continued her effort to, as she put it, drag banks "kicking and screaming" into high-risk loans. A September 1993 story in The Chicago Sun-Times presents her as the leader of an initiative in which five area financial institutions (including two of her former targets, now plainly cowed - Bell Federal Savings and Avondale Federal Savings) were "participating in a $55 million national pilot program with affordable-housing group ACORN to make mortgages for low- and moderate-income people with troubled credit histories."

What made this program different from others, the paper added, was the participation of Fannie Mae - which had agreed to buy up the loans. "If this pilot program works," crowed Talbott, "it will send a message to the lending community that it's OK to make these kind of loans."

Well, the pilot program "worked," and Fannie Mae's message that risky loans to minorities were "OK" was sent. The rest is financial-meltdown history.

IT would be tough to find an "on the ground" community organizer more closely tied to the subprime-mortgage fiasco than Madeline Talbott. And no one has been more supportive of Madeline Talbott than Barack Obama.

When Obama was just a budding community organizer in Chicago, Talbott was so impressed that she asked him to train her personal staff.

He returned to Chicago in the early '90s, just as Talbott was starting her pressure campaign on local banks. Chicago ACORN sought out Obama's legal services for a "motor voter" case and partnered with him on his 1992 "Project VOTE" registration drive.

In those years, he also conducted leadership-training seminars for ACORN's up-and-coming organizers. That is, Obama was training the army of ACORN organizers who participated in Madeline Talbott's drive against Chicago's banks.

More than that, Obama was funding them. As he rose to a leadership role at Chicago's Woods Fund, he became the most powerful voice on the foundation's board for supporting ACORN and other community organizers. In 1995, the Woods Fund substantially expanded its funding of community organizers - and Obama chaired the committee that urged and managed the shift.

That committee's report on strategies for funding groups like ACORN features all the key names in Obama's organizer network. The report quotes Talbott more than any other figure; Sandra Maxwell, Talbott's ACORN ally in the bank battle, was also among the organizers consulted.

MORE, the Obama-supervised Woods Fund report ac knowledges the problem of getting donors and foundations to contribute to radical groups like ACORN - whose confrontational tactics often scare off even liberal donors and foundations.

Indeed, the report brags about pulling the wool over the public's eye. The Woods Fund's claim to be "nonideological," it says, has "enabled the Trustees to make grants to organizations that use confrontational tactics against the business and government 'establishments' without undue risk of being criticized for partisanship."

Hmm. Radicalism disguised by a claim to be postideological. Sound familiar?

The Woods Fund report makes it clear Obama was fully aware of the intimidation tactics used by ACORN's Madeline Talbott in her pioneering efforts to force banks to suspend their usual credit standards. Yet he supported Talbott in every conceivable way. He trained her personal staff and other aspiring ACORN leaders, he consulted with her extensively, and he arranged a major boost in foundation funding for her efforts.

And, as the leader of another charity, the Chicago Annenberg Challenge, Obama channeled more funding Talbott's way - ostensibly for education projects but surely supportive of ACORN's overall efforts.

In return, Talbott proudly announced her support of Obama's first campaign for state Senate, saying, "We accept and respect him as a kindred spirit, a fellow organizer."

IN short, to understand the roots of the subprime-mort gage crisis, look to ACORN's Madeline Talbott. And to see how Talbott was able to work her mischief, look to Barack Obama.

Then you'll truly know what community organizers do.

Stanley Kurtz is a senior fellow with the Ethics and Public Policy Center in Washington, DC.

September 28, 2008

Why The Crisis Is Like A Kidney Stone

http://www.tommitsoff.com/images/pain2.jpg

   (Image from tommitsoff.com)

By the inimitable, Irreplaceable Bill Whittle.  Short.  See it at http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=YWE1YTg0N2I5OTQ1ZWNkYjFmYTNjZjQ2ZmMzYmM5ZjA=. 

Samples:

(I had) no health insurance. Why? A preexisting surgery made me tough to insure, but the fact is, I had gotten away with it yesterday, and the day before, and the day before that. So I was trusting to luck for a while. And I had been lucky — for a while.

Next thing I know I’m bent over in the hallway, waiting for the car to come around — hands on my knees like I’d run a marathon. And then — BAM! I’m kneeling in front of the couch, arms wrapped around the cushion, making sounds like frying grease . . . little pops and grunts and hisses. Ten minutes in and I was beneath language already.

After the stone was gone,

Do you want to know what my honest-to-God first thought was when the pain got manageable enough to be able to hold a thought? I tell you: I thought of John McCain. And I’ll tell you what hit me the hardest: not his pain lasted for five years when mine lasted for four hours. But to add to that raw fear, lying in filth and knowing that those footsteps in the hall would bring not relief but more pain . . . my God! When I think about those men on those fields from Bunker Hill to Baghdad, lying there for hours, awaiting rescue and relief that often simply never came . . . I end up — and I don’t expect any of you to actually believe this — I end up grateful for those few hours.

His thoughts:

Here was my second thought: I would like to kiss the hand of those evil, greedy, horrible KKKorporations that made and tested Demerol and Dilaudid and the ultrasound sensor and clean needles and sterile IV bags and all the rest of it. I know they’re the villains of courtroom novels and Michael Moore movies and thus are wicked, greedy, soulless Nazis — but if I met a single one of them I would kiss their hands and feet in gratitude. And it did not elude me, when that blinding light finally went out and I felt good again, that my Moral Superiors who protest and vilify these companies at every turn have not — in point of fact — ever done a single thing to relieve my pain or anyone else’s. Nor could any of those murdering, Seventh-century barbarians we are fighting do so much as carve a block of wood to look like that ultrasound sensor. No, pain has been here forever, and when you strip all the plasma TV’s and jet travel and iPhones away you are left with the brass tacks: It takes civilization to remove pain, and Western Civilization to actually fix what’s causing it, more often than not. And that is another thing I try never to forget.

"And I had a final thought"

My dad suffered from kidney stones his whole life...And yet, the only time I ever saw that man cry was when he talked about the Depression, and how it felt to watch your neighbors eat out of garbage cans.

I don’t want that experience. Just about any remedy, no matter how horrible, would be better than that. But I have re-negotiated my new job to include health insurance. Why today and not three years ago? Because I just came through a world of hurt. I don’t ever want to go through that again.

And this is my concern about the $700 billion kidney stone the economy is trying to pass. It seems to me that if we are going to change behaviors then the people who got us into this mess need to feel a little pain. 

Is that too much to ask of this mess? That from whatever pain we have to endure, we can perhaps learn enough from it so that we don’t go through this again?

September 27, 2008

Scam That Caused The Crisis

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_              (Image from epluribusmedia.net)

Take 8 minutes to see this video of Congress pooh-poohing the Fannie/Freddie problem just a few short years ago, at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_MGT_cSi7Rs.  Sad and shocking. 

Especially see former President Clinton's frank, rueful comments at the end. 

September 26, 2008

Video: What Caused Financial Crisis?

                        (Image from e-watchman.co.uk)

This video shows better, quicker and more understandably how all this came about than anything I have seen.  At http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H5tZc8oH--o.  9 minutes.

(This video came from The Drudge Report.  In the last minute it turned out to be a McCain ad.  But the first 8 minutes summarize the facts from most of the better articles on the roots of this crisis.  The value of this video is that it presents the major facts graphically and all in one place.  That makes it a very helpful summary of the relevant information..)

September 25, 2008

Bailout Could Make Money For Taxpayers

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                (Image from msnbcmedia1.msn.com)

In the Wall Street Journal today, Andy Kessler writes at http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122230704116773989.html:

In 1992, hedge-fund manager George Soros made $1 billion betting against the British pound. In 2007, John Paulson's Credit Opportunities fund correctly bet against subprime mortgages, clearing $15 billion for the year and $3.7 billion for him. Warren Buffett is now hoping to make big money on Goldman Sachs.

But these are small-time deals. My analysis suggests that Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson (a former investment banker, no less, not a trader) may pull off the mother of all trades, which could net a trillion dollars and maybe as much as $2.2 trillion -- yes, with a "t" -- for the United States Treasury.  (Emphasis added.)

You should read the rest of this fascinating article, at the link above. 

In support of Kessler's article, Warren Buffet has already profited by his large investment, hours ago, in Goldman Sachs.  There is already a profit of about $783 million on his $5 billion investment in just hours.   (See http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article4821506.ece)

There is a fire sale going on!  Reputable old companies with huge assets but no cash, who are dying for cash, will pay a lot to get cash..  If this bail-out goes through, it could help pay something toward Social Security, health care or tax cuts. 

It could be profit time, as well as reform time, for the U.S. government with Paulson's deal.

September 24, 2008

Democrats Responsible for Financial Crisis

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At Bloombergs today see "How Democrats Created the Financial Crisis" by Kevin Hassett, at http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&refer=columnist_hassett&sid=aSKSoiNbnQY0

This crisis seems so complex, but really, it isn't.

Enough cards on this table have been turned over that the story is now clear. The economic history books will describe this episode in simple and understandable terms: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac exploded, and many bystanders were injured in the blast, some fatally.

Fannie and Freddie did this by becoming a key enabler of the mortgage crisis. They fueled Wall Street's efforts to securitize subprime loans by becoming the primary customer of all AAA-rated subprime-mortgage pools. In addition, they held an enormous portfolio of mortgages themselves.

Their large presence created an environment within which even mortgage-backed securities assembled by others could find a ready home.

But all this worked only as long as real estate prices stayed high.

Once they began to fall, the entire house of cards came down with them.

Turning Point

Take away Fannie and Freddie, or regulate them more wisely, and it's hard to imagine how these highly liquid markets would ever have emerged. This whole mess would never have happened.

It is easy to identify the historical turning point that marked the beginning of the end. 

Back in 2005, Fannie and Freddie were...on the ropes...enmeshed in accounting scandals.  At one telling moment in late 2004...the SECs chief accountant told disgraced Fannie Mae chief Franklin Raines that Fannie's position on the relevant accounting issue was not even ``on the page'' of allowable interpretations.

Than a movement in Congress emerged to create a "world-class regulator" to oversee Fannie and Freddie.  It would impose...

...strict requirements on their ability to take excessive risks. Politicians who previously had associated themselves proudly with the two accounting miscreants were less eager to be associated with them. The time was ripe.

Greenspan's Warning in 2005:

Alan Greenspan told Congress how urgent it was for it to act...If Fannie and Freddie ``continue to grow, continue to have the low capital that they have, continue to engage in the dynamic hedging of their portfolios, which they need to do for interest rate risk aversion, they potentially create ever-growing potential systemic risk down the road,'' he said. `` 

Then something extraordinary happened.  For the first time, a serious Fannie/Freddie reform bill was passed by the Senate Banking Committee.

The bill gave a regulator power to crack down, and would have required the companies to eliminate their investments in risky assets.

The world would be different today if that bill had become law.

Without (Fannie/Freddie) checkbooks keeping the market liquid and buying up excess supply, the (sub-prime) market would likely have not existed.

But the bill didn't become law.

Democrats opposed it on a party-line vote in the committee, signaling that this would be a partisan issue. Republicans, tied in knots by the tight Democratic opposition, couldn't even get the Senate to vote on the matter.

That such a reckless political stand could have been taken by the Democrats was obscene even then. Wallison wrote at the time: ``It is a classic case of socializing the risk while privatizing the profit. The Democrats and the few Republicans who oppose portfolio limitations could not possibly do so if their constituents understood what they were doing.''

The roadblock

Now that the collapse has occurred, the roadblock built by Senate Democrats in 2005 is unforgivable. Many who opposed the bill doubtlessly did so for honorable reasons.

But we now know that many of the senators who protected Fannie and Freddie, including Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and Christopher Dodd, have received mind-boggling levels of financial support from them over the years.

Throughout his political career, Obama has gotten more than $125,000 in campaign contributions from employees and political action committees of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, second only to Dodd, the Senate Banking Committee chairman, who received more than $165,000.

Clinton, the 12th-ranked recipient of Fannie and Freddie PAC and employee contributions, has received more than $75,000 from the two enterprises and their employees. The private profit found its way back to the senators who killed the fix.

Who is to blame for this crisis?  Take a look at the story of 2005.

       ...there is one little footnote to the story that's worth keeping in mind...Senator John McCain was one of the three cosponsors of S.190, the bill that would have averted this mess.  (All emphases added.)

______________

(Kevin Hassett, director of economic-policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute, is a Bloomberg News columnist. He is an adviser to Republican Senator John McCain of Arizona in the 2008 presidential election. The opinions expressed are his own.)

McCain Tried to Reform Fannie/Freddie in 2006

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This is the statement of Senator McCain to the Senate in 2006, as he addresses the President of the Senate, at http://www.johnmccain.com/mccainreport/Read.aspx?guid=74063c9d-7cb5-47c9-acf6-53c0c2d88376:

Statement by Senator John McCain, May 25, 2006:

Mr. President, this week Fannie Mae's regulator reported that the company's quarterly reports of profit growth over the past few years were "illusions deliberately and systematically created" by the company's senior management, which resulted in a $10.6 billion accounting scandal.

The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight's report goes on to say that Fannie Mae employees deliberately and intentionally manipulated financial reports to hit earnings targets in order to trigger bonuses for senior executives. In the case of Franklin Raines, Fannie Mae's former chief executive officer, OFHEO's report shows that over half of Mr. Raines' compensation for the 6 years through 2003 was directly tied to meeting earnings targets. The report of financial misconduct at Fannie Mae echoes the deeply troubling $5 billion profit restatement at Freddie Mac.

The OFHEO report also states that Fannie Mae used its political power to lobby Congress in an effort to interfere with the regulator's examination of the company's accounting problems. This report comes some weeks after Freddie Mac paid a record $3.8 million fine in a settlement with the Federal Election Commission and restated lobbying disclosure reports from 2004 to 2005. These are entities that have demonstrated over and over again that they are deeply in need of reform.

For years I have been concerned about the regulatory structure that governs Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac--known as Government-sponsored entities or GSEs--and the sheer magnitude of these companies and the role they play in the housing market. OFHEO's report this week does nothing to ease these concerns. In fact, the report does quite the contrary. OFHEO's report solidifies my view that the GSEs need to be reformed without delay.

I join as a cosponsor of the Federal Housing Enterprise Regulatory Reform Act of 2005, S. 190, to underscore my support for quick passage of GSE regulatory reform legislation. If Congress does not act, American taxpayers will continue to be exposed to the enormous risk that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac pose to the housing market, the overall financial system, and the economy as a whole.   (Emphasis added.)

I urge my colleagues to support swift action on this GSE reform legislation.

September 21, 2008

No Crisis Now If We Had Used Charities Then

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Actually, good intentions really did begin the process that eventually led to this crisis - the compassionate desire to cut down on racism and poverty, by helping minorities and the poor own their homes.

Then the good intentions were used as election bait by politicians, and a new government program was started.  Once that happened, the camel's nose got into the tent and the rest of the camel soon followed.  A new government program may be hard to start and its features may be hotly debated.  But once it is started, big changes in it can easily be made with little notice.  Then it can be quietly expanded and altered, again and again, and milked by politicians for graft and patronage from then on, almost entirely out of the public eye.  That happened in this case, as often does.

Then as these mortgage-based programs got so massive that almost every mortgage in the U.S. was backed by Freddie and Fannie,  that became an irrestible lure for Wall Street people.  So much money, secured (after a fashion), and usable for speculation!  What trader or investor could resist that??  Then onward toward over-extension, then bubble, then collapse.  An old story.

The process went like this:

good intentions ->
-> government involvement
-> politicians making that government involvement become enormous
-> Investors/speculators exploiting that huge pool of mortgages
-> overextending that exploitation, making a bubble
-> present crash begins
-> $700 billion or more bailout.

True, there may not have been good intentions by every speculator or trader or politician, or by anyone else along the way, once the process of government intervention began.  But the powerful inpetus that got it all started was good intentions.

On the other hand, look at what would have happened if we had turned to charities, rather than the government, to satisfy those good intentions.

Not much might have happened at first.  These charities would have been a new kind.  They would have needed some time to really get rolling.  As they grew they would have built up specialized, expert experience, raised more funds and recruited more volunteers.  Eventually they would have gotten sizeable, and well-known as an excellent way to do that job.  They also would have come to know more about what it took, and how, than anyone else.  "Habitat for Humanity" is probably a fair model for how that might have worked out.

In the 30-odd years since then, the number of minorities and poor involved would be large by now, even if not as large as in government programs.  But the net result would have been better for those minorities and poor (many of whom were probably among the first to face foreclosure as this government program began to disintegrate.)  But it would have worked very well, measurably, for the ones served by the charities.

Even if the government felt 30 years ago that it needed to get involved, it should not have.  Even if the government had done nothing then, the people they were worried about then would be better off now if the government had not gotten involved then.  That much is pretty visible right now.

I think the ultimate answer has to be this: however much - or little - the charities might have succeeded in doing then, the net result would have been better than this mess, for those in need then, and for all of us now.

That is sort of why almost all our government foreign aid goes through U.S. charities now. They just do it better.

They do more, cheaper, get a bigger bang for the buck, are more honest, less vulnerable to corruption, work harder, can turn on a dime, develop more long-term in-country expertise and savy, and consistently get better results.

There is no way that bureaucrats should even be expected to do that. That's not realistic. That's not how governments work.

(If you happened to check out my bio, you know of my background not only as an economist, but also as a poverty worker. For 18 years I had experience in starting and running 3 charities for homeless and poor people [2 large, one small, 3 cities, 2 states].  We had 65%-75% success rates, year after year, in helping them "up and out" of their situations. We got a few government grants, and were pretty familiar with government programs and agencies.  In fact, they sometimes asked me to lecture to their managers.  Not that it ever seemed to make any observable difference.)

Morale to the story:  next time you have good intentions, for heaven's sake don't look to the government.  Start or join a charity instead. Try to get your church, and other churches, involved.  Put your money and effort where your mouth is.  Make it work. 

Long-term, it will work out much, much better.  Not only in smaller costs to society, but in greater success for those about whom you are so concerned.

This new "Crash of 2008" is an excellent "learning moment."

September 19, 2008

Root of Financial Meltdown - Misguided Compassion

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                 (Image from independent.co.uk)

What a mess - the 2nd biggest financial meltdown ever!  It is as if the accelerator in Switzerland started a black hole after all, and most of the globe was getting sucked into it.  How did it begin?

It started with very good intentions.  About 30 years ago in the most powerful economy in the world - the U.S - it started as a way to fight racism, and then poverty too.   

Some banks would not lend for mortgages in very poor areas.  This was called "red-lining."  These areas had such poor credit ratings and high default rates on mortgages that banks had to avoid them.  But many such areas were not only poor, but also largely African-American or Hispanic.  So it also could have been racial discrimination.  So activists attacked red-lining as disguised but real racial discrimination. 

In many ways, they were right.  There was racial discrimination and prejudice then on a much larger scale than now.  There was a great need to end it.  So it was a